Your Complete Las Vegas Qualifying Preview

David Reutimann
Burney Lamar
Kurt Busch
Patrick Carpentier
Johnny Sauter
Mike Skinner
John Andretti
Dale Jarrett
Ken Schrader
Michael Waltrip
Joe Nemechek
Brian Vickers
AJ Allmendinger

Eight cars get in, five cars go home.

Busch (1) is automatically in as always, but he gets in on speed again, locking Jarrett (2) in the field. Reutimann (3) gets in on time, as does Vickers (4). Carpentier (5) finally qualifies and so does Allmendinger (6). Nemechek (7)gets in thanks to the Hendrick engines, and Michael Waltrip takes the final spot (8).

Who's Out: Lamar, Skinner, Andretti, Schrader, Sauter.

Restrictor Plates and California

Why?

I know I've already stated my feelings about how crappy the state of NASCAR in SoCal is. But when the track president is endorsing the idea of making the track a restrictor plate track, you know things aren't well.

We all know that the drivers hate plate racing. The fans love it. I love it. But I also know that plate racing isn't real racing. 1/9th of the schedule is already made up of plate racing, and that seems sufficient. Adding another plate race, or G-d forbid, a second one, isn't going to make many friends in the garage.

However, Gillian Zucker knows that California Speedway needs fannies in the seats, and nothing plays better amongst the NASCAR crowd than plate racing. Sure, there's the whole issue of moving the California race dates--which needs to happen anyway--and the millions of dollars to redo the track. But hey, the track looks like it's going to have to be redone anyway because of the weepers, so they might as well go for it all.

My idea: Turn California into a Daytona road course prototype. Keep the frontstretch, turns one and two, and part of the backstretch. Eliminate turn three and most of turn four, and add in six turns between the backstretch and where turn four currently sits. None of the grandstand seating would have to be moved, and it could lure the IRL back to the speedway, and host some sports car events. And, if they're really ambitious, track officials could try to lure Formula 1 back to the states. You think Bernie Ecclestone would want to race near LA and Vegas?

Random California Observations

--If there was any doubt that Roush-Fenway was up to speed on their COT program, it's gone now. If the race would have actually been run on Sunday night, Biffle would have been a strong contender as well.

--It's officially a three team race. If we were to make tiers, this is how it would stack up

Tier 1:
Hendrick
Gibbs
Roush

Tier 2:
Penske
Childress
Evernham

Tier 3:
Ganassi
DEI

Tier 4:
Everyone else

--Brian Vickers is a legitimate top 20 threat. Heck, he may even contend for a Chase spot.

--Is this deja vu for Casey Mears? Last year he almost was outside the top 35 after the first five races, and the way he's going, he may be in the same situation this year. Tough luck.

--Robby Gordon is in 12th without that penalty. Not like he's going to stay there if the penalty is overturned, but that's still pretty impressive, even though it's only been two races.

--If Tony Stewart ran a full Busch* schedule, would he have the championship locked up by September?

(I completely forgot Penske at first. Maybe it's my compensation for what happened on the last lap at Daytona.)

The day that NASCAR lost its mind

Who decided that the best time for racing was in the middle of the night?

I don't care what time zone NASCAR is in (Australia would be an exception), how in the world is this acceptable.

In a season that started off with Brian France preaching that NASCAR was getting back to its roots, it's already derailed in the second race of the year.

What person in their right minds anywhere not on the west coast (myself excluded) would stay up to watch this? Why? Why can't we just race on Monday, where ratings will be low--but higher than they would be right now--and people stuck at work could pop up the trackpass leaderboard?

Instead, NASCAR tries to save face in a market where their share sucks, and tries to run the race on the day it was scheduled when Mother Nature has other ideas. Yes NASCAR, we realize that the stands are going to be half full for this race. Yes, we realize that they will be 10% full if they raced tomorrow. But who stuck around through the rain for the midnight matinee?

If NASCAR can somehow explain this decision making process to myself and NASCAR Nation, I will gladly listen. While I fill out the asylum papers for the sport's decision makers.

Blame It On The Rain

I'm going to use my best meteorological senses and say that the Cup race isn't going to happen today.

Maybe that's why NASCAR made the inexplicable decision to have the Busch* race an hour after the Cup race. They knew that the Cup race wasn't going to start, so the Busch* race will be run Sunday night (after the Cup race is postponed) and the Cup race will start Monday.

Hopefully I'm wrong, I really want to see some racing today. But I'm not optimistic.

I'm Demanding A Free Pass

Because I didn't know that qualifying would be rained out.

(although six of eight isn't terrible)

Your complete California Qualifying Preview

First of all, was it really that necessary to sell the naming rights to the speedway? I think it's another sign that the speedway wasn't being financially viable. They can't sell out, they drag all of this Hollywood talent to the track to no avail, they have a SECOND race date they can't sell out, and now this?

Anyway, California qualifying should be fascinating because it's the first time that the cars that have to qualify on time will qualify together because of the new rules. It's a great rule that should have been in place a while back, but--conspiracy theory alert--probably became a reality because NASCAR realized that they couldn't have NAPA missing the race because Michael Waltrip got beat out by a guy who went out on a cooler track.

49 cars are attempting to qualify, so six of the following will go home:
David Reutimann
Burney Lamar
Kurt Busch
Patrick Carpentier
Bill Elliott
Mike Skinner
John Andretti
Kevin Lepage
Dale Jarrett
Ken Schrader
Michael Waltrip
Joe Nemechek
Brian Vickers
AJ Allmendinger

Once again, Busch is guaranteed into the field, and if he qualifies on time, Jarrett is next in line.

To help make this easy, I'm going to automatically eliminate Lamar, Andretti and Lepage. They're not getting in.

Busch gets in on time. (1) Michael Waltrip (2) and David Reutimann (3) do too, as does Brian Vickers (4). Patrick Carpentier (5) is in as well, and AJ Allmendinger makes his first start of the year (6). Dale Jarrett (7) barely beats out Mike Skinner for the last spot based on qualifying time, handing the past champion's provisional to Bill Elliott.

Who's out: Lamar, Lepage, Andretti, Schrader, Skinner, Nemechek.

Who's on the pole: Kyle Busch. Just a hunch.

The merger to save open wheel racing

It could be off at the moment. That's how finicky this thing is.

Yes, I used this picture on purpose. That's Sam Hornish on the high side and Dario Franchitti on the low side. They were two of the IRL's best drivers. They're in the Sprint Cup now.

Champ Car needed this, and IndyCar needed this. The fans needed this, and it looks like we're finally going to see it.

Both series were going to have car counts that were going to be closer to 15 than to 20. Both series still had names (Paul Tracy, Graham Rahal, Will Power in Champ Car; Danica, Helio, Dan Wheldon in IRL) but weren't deep. Once you got past the five most recognizable drivers in the series, there was a serious drop off.

There should be 25 cars in the series every week. There's going to be a more equivalent road/oval split amongst the series' schedule. There's going to be more competition. There's going to be better television ratings. There's going to be a greater field for the Indianapolis 500. What's not to like?

Sure, some races will cease to exist (I hope that they keep the airport race at Cleveland. That has always been one of my favorites. Turn 1 on the first lap was always exciting) and some drivers will not have rides. Only about half of Champ Car's teams are expected to join the new series, and some IRL drivers may be left without rides. But I think the fans are willing to trade A.J. Foyt IV and Buddy Rice for Graham Rahal and Paul Tracy if necessary. (nothing against the former two drivers, and I hope that they are able to keep their rides)

This is a great step in the right direction for open wheel racing. This doesn't even come close to putting it on the same level as Sprint Cup, but they're now closer to the Busch* Series than they were before.

Random Day After the Daytona 500 Thoughts

--Congratulations to Roger Penske for grabbing one of the last auto racing crown jewels that has eluded him. Now, all he needs is a Cup championship, and he can have it all. Still, I don't think there's any doubt that he's the king of auto racing.

--Speaking of Penske, Sam Hornish made him look smart yesterday. I still think that the verdict is out on Hornish--one race does not a season make--and I look forward to seeing how he does at California and Vegas. I think if you told Sam that Speedweeks would start with the birth of his daughter and end with a 15th place finish in the Daytona 500, he would have taken it in a heartbeat.

--Hendrick looked beatable. Sort of. Jeff Gordon said that he was proud to just hang with the Toyotas during the middle of the race, but wasn't around for the end thanks to a broken shock. Jimmie Johnson had the rare race in which he finished worse than he started thanks to a crash on the backstretch, but even before the crash he really wasn't a factor. Casey Mears looked good and he and crew chief Alan Gustafson sure looked like they had things figured out at the end, but Casey was a split second too late trying to block Tony Stewart, and paid the price. And since he had no one around late to help him, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. was lucky to salvage a ninth place finish after not pitting twice when everyone else did; and when he had the track position, the rest of the field just freight trained around him.

--Toyota looked awesome, but again, the season really starts next week. If Toyota looks that good at California, the Hendrick dominance story lines are officially over.

--Dario Franchitti is going to have a hard time staying in the top 35 in owner's points.

--Red Bull has their act together with Brian Vickers' team.

--Dodge will not take six of the top eight positions again this season.

Many Thanks

To The Big Lead for allowing me to post about NASCAR over the course of the last week.

I'm sure that 95% of my five readers are from TBL, and I hope that you'll stick around. I love this sport way too much.

Wrong Lane

An incredible--but crash filled--last 25 laps worked out for Ryan Newman, who, with help from teammate Kurt Busch--flew by Tony Stewart on the last lap.

Stewart lost the race, and even admitted as much. If he stays high to block Newman, we may be talking about Stewart as the 500's champion. Instead, Stewart went down to try to help teammate Kyle Busch--the teammate theme was supposed to be what was going to win the race for Joe Gibbs Racing--and paid the price for it.

The Toyotas were great today, and had the race been about overall performance, a Toyota would be sitting in victory lane. But they didn't get the best run on the final lap, and that's what matters.

Your Complete Daytona 500 Preview

Winner: Tony Stewart. It's tradition. I've picked Stewart to win the 500 the last five years, with no success, so I figure that eventually, the law of averages has to catch up. I'm not entirely optimistic that Stewart will win, because I think that the Hendrick cars are going to be ridiculously strong. However, the Gibbs cars are turning 15 more relative horsepower than the Hendrick cars (more specifically, Stewart v. Junior) and 30 more horsepower than the Childress cars (Harvick). That, and the fact that Harvick won both last year, makes me once again take Stewart. However, I am more than ready to be wrong.

Highest finishing rookie: Boy, this is a tough one, because I have no idea how aggressive these open whelers are going to be in the draft. Franchitti just hung out yesterday, while Hornish quietly got a decent finish in his duel race. I'll go with Franchitti, with the provision that I fully expect both of them to crash during the race.

What's going to happen: I expect the flow of this race to mimic the Busch* race yesterday. The cars will go at it for about 20 laps, then string out for the middle portion of the race, unless there is an exceptional number of cautions. The last 50 laps or so will be utter chaos and caution filled because of the fresh tires and cooler temperatures thanks to the darkness.

Porn Row Joe?

That's the best NASCAR mustache in recent memory.

Busch* Wrap Up

Nailed that prediction; as the Joe Gibbs Toyotas were extremely dominant today. Bryan Clauson surprised me though. He kept that car out of trouble and got a great sixth place finish. He could be making a case for a fourth Ganassi Cup car by the end of the season.

The race did string out for a bit during the middle like it had last year. However, once cars started wrecking and pit stops became more frequent, the side by side racing increased dramatically, and the fact that the "big one" was only six cars is shocking.

Overall, the race was just as entertaining as last night's truck race, despite no Busch* car catching on fire.

Your Complete Daytona Busch* Series Preview

Winner: Tony Stewart, because that car was two tenths of a second faster than anyone else in qualifying. Yes, qualifying doesn't mean much at restrictor plate tracks, but this almost automatically ensures that this Stewart won't get shuffled to the back and will have the horsepower to make a late race run to the front if he's not already in the lead.

Highest finishing Busch regular*: Brad Keselowski. I'm tempted to go with Jason Leffler, but I can't help but think that he's going to be involved in the big one.

Why you should watch: Because these cars have a wicker on the top of the roof, the closing speeds are very fast, which makes for some fun passing. However, if the conditions are similar to last year's race, the cars will be sliding around a bit, making three wide racing a rarity. Plus, you know there's going to be a big wreck. The question is whether there will be five or 15 cars involved.

*Yes I realize that it is now the Nationwide Series, but I don't think I have said "Nationwide" more than three times in my life. I still continue to refer to Busch because of the familiarity, and I like the fact that it's one syllable.

Driver Change #1

And we haven't even raced the 500 yet.

Jacques Villenueve will apparently be replaced by Mike Skinner because, well, Villenueve still can't drive a stock car and doesn't have a sponsor. From the way Mike Brown's quote reads, it sounds like driving ability is a distant second to having a sponsor.

Sure, that's the way it is and the way it has been in all levels of major racing (like the way Willie Allen got booted out of the Thorsport ride in the Truck Series), but to have a team general manager basically admit the actual reason is eye opening.

Why can't Toyota slap some dealership logos on it like they do for Skinner's truck. Is it really that hard? With all of the support that Bill Davis is getting from Toyota, I can't imagine that he's losing that much money on that second car anyway.

Duel!

Well, I didn't do too badly with my predictions.

In the first duel, I nailed my Junior pick (Hello, Captain Obvious) and got the Vickers pick. But Kurt Busch broke and had to use the past champions' provisional, so saying that I picked him to get in isn't correct because he was in the show no matter what. However, I did get Boris Said just missing a transfer spot right, but he didn't make the field on speed. Completely whiffed on the Kenny Wallace pick; I thought he wouldn't be a factor.

In the second one, I thought I was going to go 2-for-2 on winners with two laps to go, but having your predicted winner (Tony Stewart) finish second isn't too bad. But in regards to the transfer spots, I missed badly. I figured that John Andretti would wreck or break, and I thought that Jarrett would take it easy because he knew he'd be in. However, since Busch broke, Jarrett had to hustle his tail off, and get some team help from Michael Waltrip and David Reutimann.

I feel sorry for Boris, because I really wanted to see him in the race, but at the same time, he did nothing Thursday to show that he'd be a factor on Sunday.

And Kenny's euphoric diatribe on Speed? Give me a break. There's a reason that no one was giving you or your brother Mike rides at Daytona.

Don't pick Junior to win the 500

JINX!

Your comprehensive Gatorade Duels Preview

Duel #1

Winner: Dale Earnhardt, Jr. Does anyone really expect that going to the back is going to affect Junior all that much? He's going to have two dance partners in Jimmie Johnson and Casey Mears, and he's got the added benefit of Johnson being already locked into the pole position.

Who's in: Kurt Busch's presence makes this extremely difficult to predict. Busch is guaranteed a spot in the race with the past champions' provisional, but is still considered an outside-the-top-35 car, and would open up that provisional if he was to snag one of the first duel's two transfer spots. That's a given. Therefore, that leaves one transfer spot, which I think goes to Brian Vickers. Joe Nemechek is already locked in, and since Busch takes the first transfer spot, Boris Said is the beneficiary because of his qualifying time.

Heartbreak Hotel: AJ Allmendinger, Bill Elliott, Carl Long, Sterling Marlin, Kenny Wallace. Allmendinger and Elliott start the season behind the 8 ball in the top 35, as the other three aren't running a full season. Elliott is third in line for the past champion's provisional, and while it is feasible that he could get in because Busch and Dale Jarrett have been pretty quick, I don't think that it's going to happen.

Duel #2 Winner: Tony Stewart. Much like Dale Jr., Stewart's move to the back of the line won't be an issue. Stewart has been ridiculously successful in the duel races, and with both his teammates in the second duel with him, this race should be no different. Barring a catastrophe, look for all three Gibbs cars to finish in the top 5.

Who's in: Michael Waltrip and David Reutimann start first and second, and are already guaranteed positions based on Sunday. Since Boris Said will lock himself into the show in the first race, Patrick Carpentier will be automatically locked in before this race starts, but will still get one of the transfer spots. But Reutimann will be in one of those transfer spots, and Dale Jarrett uses the past champion's provisional.

Heartbreak Hotel: Jacques Villenueve, Ken Schrader, Stanton Barrett, Eric McClure, John Andretti. Villenueve makes a silly mistake and will scrape the wall, and while Schrader will get up on the wheel, his equipment won't be good enough to get him in the field.

Dem dere engines blowed up!

Well, looks like we've found the chink in the Hendrick armor.

All four cars replaced their engines today after a problem was found with the lifters. Dale Jr.'s actually blowed up real good, prompting the mass change.

Tony Stewart changed engines, as did J.J. Yeley (both engines are from the same shop) and Greg Zipadelli didn't sound too confident in the reliability on Speed when he said that the team would change the engines as many times as possible if needed before the 500.

Clint Bowyer also lost an engine.

All of the cars that made post qualifying engine changes will have to start at the back of their respective duels.

Why?

I don't understand Danica Patrick's decision to pose for the swimsuit issue.

Was her profile not high enough? Hasn't she repeated ad nauseum that all she wants to be known for is a racer?

First of all, I'd understand Danica's decision if there were other female athletes posing. (athletes' wives don't count) But she's the only one. And then, plastered across the front of SI.com next to Marisa Miller and another model. Danica is attractive, make no mistake, but does she really belong together with supermodels?

She's also running the severe risk of becoming "that girl" much like Anna Kournikova has become. She's got driving talent, there's no doubt about that, and as a staunch defender of Danica, I've contended for the last two years that it's just a matter of time before she wins a race, and last year was one giant round of bad luck after another.

But it's now put up or shut up time. In a depleted field with no Dario or Sam and another year in top notch equipment, Danica HAS to win a race this year. No buts about it. She doesn't win, her critics have every right to call her auto racing's Kournikova.

Of course, defenders may retort back with the stat that it takes the average IRL driver 30some races to win a race. Sorry, Danica should be better than average.

I don't care if it's about fuel strategy or if the leader wrecks on the last lap. She has to win. Plain and simple.

The decision to pose for FHM in 2002 makes sense. She was looking to be recognized, and certainly got that with the photo spread. But now, with this decision, she's established herself as a woman who poses in skimpy clothing who also drives fast cars. Not a race car driver who moonlights as a model.

Unless, of course, that's what she wants.

What 2008 is going to look like

Chase qualifiers (where they will start the Chase)
1. Jeff Gordon-- I wouldn't be surprised to see Gordon run away with the regular season title. Every preseason magazine is picking Gordon to win the Sprint Cup Championship, but I don't see that happening. By that time, Joe Gibbs Racing is rolling, or Jimmie Johnson goes on a ridiculous late season tear again. I will say this right now--a Hendrick or a Gibbs car is going to win the title. No doubt about it.

2. Jimmie Johnson--A three peat in this format would be the sport's biggest accomplishment ever. Hyperbole? Probably not, especially when you've got the best crew chief and equipment in the sport. Johnson's going to be there. A down year for Johnson is a fifth place finish. That's pretty damn good.

3. Tony Stewart--There is going to be no adjustment period for JGR. None. They were strong as soon as testing started, and I can't see any way that this team doesn't make the Chase a la 2006, or even struggles for an extended period of time. Sure, the JGR camp may have the sporadic parts failure at the beginning of the year, but it's going to be nothing major. This team is going to be a serious contender.

4. Matt Kenseth--Why do I feel that Matt Kenseth is a lock for the Chase and a top five but not the championship? Maybe because he's so quiet, doesn't garner the spotlight, and doesn't reel off wins at a crazy rate. The crew chief switch to Chip Bolin will be a non issue, and this team will be there at the end, they just won't be that close.

5. Denny Hamlin--One of the preseason favorites to miss the Chase, Hamlin will easily make it. Top notch equipment, solid pit calls and a consistent driver are a heck of a combination. Will Hamlin win enough to win the Chase? Probably not, but I wouldn't be surprised if he won multiple races in 2008.

6. Carl Edwards--If a non Hendrick or Gibbs car is going to win the Chase, this is the team to do it. Carl really made strides at the end of the year in the COT when Roush finally got everything figured out. He'll win three races, if not more, and if he can be exceptionally consistent, will be a Sprint Cup Champ.

7. Kyle Busch--Year one of the Tony-Denny-Kyle experiment should be a winner, with all three drivers getting into the Chase. Kyle will win three races this year, but also may wreck three cars as well trying to show that he was the gem of the free agent class. And I know this may seem like a non-issue, but don't be surprised if he gives Dale Jr. a lovetap sometime as payback for the end of last season.

8. Dale Earnhardt, Jr.--That car sure looked good in the Shootout, didn't it? Junior will finally get back into the Chase and get back into victory lane when it counts, but will be the third fiddle at Hendrick when it comes to on track results. Junior's going to someday win a title, just not in 2008.

9. Clint Bowyer--the sudden notice of Bowyer's ability when he won at New Hampshire really annoyed the crap out of me. The dude can drive. He's won in every series he's been in. Just because he solidly cranked out top 15 finishes, but didn't get a win before the Chase started didn't mean he didn't belong. It just meant that he could get to the end of races; a main component in the NASCAR points system. That says a lot.

10. Martin Truex, Jr.--DEI's new flagship driver will make the Chase, but won't have any impact. Truex may win a race or two, but that will be it, and solidly establish himself as far and away the best driver of DEI's three fulltime drivers. Heck, the other two may not be making the show on a consistent basis come August.

11. Kurt Busch--He's going to get in the Chase even if he has to break out the past champion's provisional a couple of times in the first five races because of the points swap. And he's going to make the Chase as long as he doesn't get suspended for doing something stupid. While that can't be counted out, given the way that he likes to throw his car into Tony Stewart's, Busch is a good enough driver to get in the playoff.

12. Ryan Newman--Newman will be good for a handful of poles as always, but will struggle trying to reach the winner's circle. Newman may win a race, but will get enough top 10s to just sneak into the Chase ahead of Hendrick's fourth driver, Casey Mears.
---------
13. Casey Mears
14. Kevin Harvick
15. Jeff Burton
16. Greg Biffle
17. Kasey Kahne
18. Brian Vickers
19. Juan Pablo Montoya
20. Brian Vickers
21. Jamie McMurray
22. Elliott Sadler
23. Bobby Labonte
24. J.J. Yeley
25. Mark Martin (24 races)
26. David Ragan
27. David Reutimann
28. Dave Blaney
29. Reed Sorenson
30. Paul Menard
31. Michael Waltrip
32. Robby Gordon
33. Kyle Petty
34. Dario Franchitti
35. Patrick Carpentier
36. Regan Smith
37. Travis Kvapil
38. David Gilliland
39. Sam Hornish, Jr.
40. Jacques Villenueve
41. A.J. Allmendinger
42. Scott Riggs
43. Jeremy Mayfield

The Gatorade Duel Lineups

In what only must be considered an attempt to show the western world that the people who run NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series are really smart, NASCAR has outdone themselves with the qualifying procedures for the Daytona 500.

I understand that we have the Duels. I love the Duel 150s. It's 300 miles more of racing that I get to see to get ready for the season.

I understand pole day. I understand that the top two cars are locked into positions 1 and 2. (JJ and Waltrip)

I understand that the cars in the top 35 in owners' points are locked in and I understand that since Kurt Busch switched owners' points with Sam Hornish that Busch is eligible for the past champion's provisional; therefore essentially leaving 7 other spots remaining amongst the 17 other teams outside the top 35.

What I don't understand is the qualifying procedure to set the field for the duels. I understand that because of the top 35 rule that it needs to be done to make even the number of teams that aren't locked in into each duel. That makes sense.

But NASCAR took it a step further, and locked the top 35 into each duel as soon as the season was over. For example, since Tony Stewart finished 6th in the owners' points in 2007, he's in the second duel. Since Dale Jr's team finished 15th, he's in the first duel. Sounds simple enough, right?

Ahh, but here's the problem. Stewart qualified 12th on Sunday. Junior 15th. But since most of the teams that were ahead of both drivers were even numbers in the owner points, like Stewart, Stewart starts further back in his duel than Junior does. (8th; Junior starts 5th). The pattern doesn't get much better either, because the driver starting 19th in the second duel actually qualified faster than the driver in 12th in the first duel.

I know, starting positions at Daytona aren't much, but is it that hard to be fair? Go back to the way it used to be, NASCAR. Just alternate. If you qualified 3rd, 5th or 7th, you were in the first duel. 2-4-6 in the second and so on.

Do the owner's points thing with the non-top 35 cars. Don't try to get too smart.