Random Martinsville Observations

--Jeff and Jimmie are now in the top 10. Everyone please step away from that cliff.

--Jamie McMurray came through when he needed to Sunday. His eighth place finish boosted him to 30th in the owners' points, and a guaranteed spot at Texas.

--Sam Hornish is now on the outside looking in with Dave Blaney, Dario Franchitti, David Reutimann and Kyle Petty. It's a shame that Kyle missed Sunday's race, but he hasn't been competitive all year, and it's the price you pay for being a constant backmarker.

--Speaking of Reutimann, NASCAR wouldn't let the #00 and #44 switch points over the week off. I'm normally not a fan of NASCAR's tendency to let teams swap around points, but I do think that they erred by not letting Michael Waltrip Racing swap the points. Reutimann earned those points for the #00 car, and should have been able to keep them when he replaced Jarrett in the #44. NASCAR knew that Jarrett ws going to retire after five races, so this wasn't a shock or a move made because a team was struggling.

--How could I forget about the stolen sway bar. Oh yeah, I don't think it's that big of a story. When Jack Roush mentioned a Toyota team was the culprit, I immediately thought of MWR because of last year's Daytona cheating. However, this is Jack Roush that we're talking about and he has a tendency to overstate things. Do I completely believe Michael Waltrip? No. But I don't really believe Jack Roush either.

Vindication

Before Sunday's race, Denny Hamlin felt that he was cursed. He had terrible luck at Daytona, got caught a lap down in Vegas, and had a great car at Bristol and was in position to win until something happened with the fuel pickup.

But crew chief Mike Ford played their strategy perfectly, and the almost-an-afterthought third driver in the Joe Gibbs stable picked up his first win of the year at a track that Hamlin would give almost anything to win about.

For those of you keeping score at home, it's Gibbs 2, Hendrick 0. But please, don't read too much into that. The Hendrick cars have been as good as the Gibbs and Childress cars this year, they just don't have the wins to show for it.

Hendrick did what Gibbs did two weeks ago at Bristol and dominated the majority of the race, but a Hendrick car just didn't lead the last lap. But the four Hendrick cars did finish in the top 10; inevitably leading to the "Hendrick is back! Sorta" sidebars in newspapers around the country.

Don't worry. This is going to be a three or four team chase for the title this year, and it promises to be exceptional.

(photo from AP/Mark Humphrey and thatsracin.com)

Easter Weekend Power Rankings

Childress strengthens its grip on the top spot while Hendrick jumps ahead of Roush-Fenway. (But wait, I thought that Hendrick was struggling this year? I swear I read that story this week...)

Childress- 5.3
Gibbs- 7.66
Hendrick- 16.25
Roush- 17.6
Penske- 17.66
DEI- 23.75
R. Gordon- 24
Evernham- 24.33
Yates- 26
Ganassi- 28
Haas- 28.5
Petty- 29.5
Waltrip- 30.33
Red Bull- 30.5
Hall of Fame- 31
Bill Davis- 37

Is this the beginning of the end?

I probably am harping on this way too much, but I can't get over the fact that Jamie McMurray is outside the top 35 in points.

Well, scratch that, not so much that it's Jamie McMurray, but that it's Jamie McMurray in a Roush-Fenway car in 36th place.

McMurray must have made a deal with the racing devil. He got caught up in a wreck at Daytona, spun at Vegas, wrecked at Atlanta and wrecked at Bristol. However, it wasn't like he was running exceptionally well when he had his incidents anyway.

I've always felt that McMurray was a good, but not great driver. He did come exceptionally close to making the Chase in a Ganassi car, and did win in one of his first Cup starts subbing for Sterling Marlin. (However, I think 2002 goes to show that the Ganassi cars were the class of the field that year, not Sterling Marlin and Jamie McMurray)

He did win last season, just barely beating Kyle Busch to the stripe at the last "old car" race at Daytona. But besides that win, McMurray's tenure at Roush has been nothing special.

I can't help but wonder if this is the beginning of the end for McMurray. It's long been rumored that Greg Biffle would be the driver on the chopping block when the four team limit goes into effect, but with Biffle's performance right now, it looks to me that McMurray is the one that's going to go away.

McMurray is just four points out of 35th, so if he does qualify for the show next Sunday, he's more than likely going to get back into the top 35, unless he keeps wrecking. But even if he does easily time into the field March 30th, I think the clock is counting down on McMurray's Roush-Fenway tenure.

Random Bristol Observations

--Tony Stewart has led 769 of a possible 1,510 laps in the last three Bristol spring races. He's finished 12th, 35th and 15th. Seriously, is there a Cup driver with better performances but worse luck at any other track?

--Gibbs cars have led 1,064 of those laps. Is there a team with better performances but worse luck at any other track?

--Jamie McMurray is outside the top 35. Think Roush wants Kurt Busch back?

--What does it say about Kyle Petty when Casey Mears and McMurray are 42nd and 43rd, Dale Jarrett has a pitiful run, and Jeremy Mayfield isn't very good, yet Petty can't improve on his 40th position in the points standings?

--I have a feeling that we're going to see Petty Enterprises switch the points from the 43 car to the 45 car. This shouldn't be allowed to happen. Even though he is Kyle Petty, he shouldn't be guaranteed a spot in the field with how slow he's been this season.

--Slugger Labbe is rumored to take over the crew chief duties of the #96. Will we finally see what we've been waiting for from J.J. Yeley?

--OMG! Hendrick didn't win! Please, can we put that story to bed? In case you haven't noticed, Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are now 13th and 14th in the points. They're lurking. They haven't gone anywhere.

(image from thatsracin.com)

Is this the redneck karma for switching to Toyota?

Has a team ever experienced worse luck as a whole than Joe Gibbs Racing did at Bristol today?

One moment, the three Gibbs cars are leaving the pit lane 1-2-3 just inches from each other. The next, Denny Hamlin is back on pit road to fix damage that Casey Mears caused trying to get his lap back, and Kyle Busch is spinning out of control when his power steering fails.

Hamlin battled back, and got to second after Kevin Harvick pitted. And flew past Tony Stewart--who dominated the race for the third straight year--with just four laps to go.

But then Stewart collided with Harvick and went sliding into the wall. Two Gibbs cars down.

And then, to complete the trifecta, on the ensuing green-white-checkered finish, something was amiss in Hamlin's fuel pickup, and Hamlin relinquishes the lead to Jeff Burton.

Hamlin: 6th
Stewart: 15th
Busch: 17th

(And lest we forget, Richard Childress Racing went 1-2-3 after all of the Gibbs' cars' misfortunes. Not only are the JGR cars' failures remarkable, the fact that one team was the sole benefactor of all the hardships is doubly amazing)

Your Complete Food City 500 Preview

With the rain wreaking havoc for the second time this season, I have a feeling that we're not going to see many comers and goers (cue Larry Mac) on Sunday. The good cars in the back may not have a chance to get up to the front before they get lapped, and the amount of cars that will fall back probably be minimal as well.

Joe Gibbs Racing dominated the spring race last year, leading almost 400 laps before parts failures. But since the banking has changed and the COT has become full time, I don't think we're going to see that type of dominance by any one team this time.

However, Gibbs DID dominate last season, and they have last year's winner now.

Hmm.......

Winner: Kyle Busch.

(Last week's pick Jimmie Johnson finished 9th. I'm now 0-4 on the season and this is the fourth time in five races I've picked a Gibbs car. Take from it what you will)

Your Complete Australian F1 Preview

Ok, this isn't much of a preview because I really don't know much of Formula 1.

Drivers off the top of my head: Hamilton, Raikkonen, Massa, Alonso, Kovalakein (sp?) Schumacher (Ralf), Heidfeld, Bourdais, Barrichello. Yeah, that's it. Sad, and I probably should know more, but I don't.

I do know that Lewis Hamilton is on the pole, so I'm going to pick him to win. The best part of F1 is the standing starts and the subsequent dives into turn one. Yeah, I know, uneducated; but those grooved tires make racing the suck.

What I also know is that the F1 game for PS3 is one of the best racing games I have ever played. While the driver list is old, the graphics and gameplay are fantastic, and the racing modes are as deep or as shallow as you like.

But, I'm going to try to follow F1 this year. I'm staying up for tonight's race, and actually looking forward to it. Although, I seem to find myself watching any and all racing these days. I spent 45 minutes watching the 12 hours of Sebring today. On one of the biggest basketball Saturdays of the year.

Post Week 4 Power Rankings

There's no point in starting rankings afer the first week, because what can we draw from Daytona?

Here, I'm going to use my super scientific formula to determine which teams (not individuals) are the best. Maybe this will solve that Gibbs v. Roush v. Hendrick debate. (yeah right)

All I'm going to do is take the cumulative points positions of the team's cars, and then divide them by the number of cars the team has. (Gibbs = 3, Roush = 5) Smallest number is the "strongest" and owner points are used.

That doesn't seem too complicated, does it?

Childress- 8
Gibbs- 9.3
Roush- 14.6 (penalty included)
Hendrick- 16
Penske- 16.66
DEI- 23
R. Gordon- 24
Evernham- 24.33
Red Bull- 26
Yates- 28.5
Petty- 29
Haas- 30
Waltrip- 30.66
Ganassi- 31
Hall of Fame- 35
Bill Davis- 37 (#27 not counted because it has suspended operations)

I was mildly surprised that Childress was #1, and that Evernham is so low (Carpentier helps).

I hope to do this every week.

The Balance of Power Is Shifting

Well, not really, just the make up of the bottom part of the top 35 in owners' points.

28. David Gilliland 352
29. Travis Kvapil 346
30. Casey Mears 331
31. Jamie McMurray 318
32. Dale Jarrett 315
33. Michael Waltrip 303
34. Jeremy Mayfield 301
35. J.J. Yeley 298
36. Sam Hornish Jr. 280
37. Dave Blaney 273
38. Dario Franchitti 264
39. Regan Smith 232
40. Kyle Petty 217

As you all know, the top 35 are guaranteed into the field. Petty, Blaney, Franchitti and Smith (and in the case of Smith and Franchitti, their cars) were locked in last year. Hornish just has Kurt Busch's points.

Of course, this is very likely to change after next week, when this year's owner points starts to take effect. If I had to bet on one driver jumping into the top 35, I'd pick Blaney, and I wouldn't be surprised if Waltrip or Jarrett fell out.

To me, the race to get locked into the field is just as interesting as the Chase. And unlike last year, we're staring at established teams being forced to qualify on time (Ganassi, DEI, Penske, Petty). Blaney has had bad luck this year, Kyle Petty neds to hang them up and move to the television booth full time, Dario and Sam need more seasoning, and I think Regan Smith is only there because he has a contract.

So while the list is certainly different, I can't say I'm surprised.

(note: those are all just drivers that have made every race.)

Random Atlanta Observations

--Of course, the one time that I don't pick a JGR car, one goes to victory lane. However, I don't think I'd have much credibility if I picked one to win every week.

--Pardon me for being thankful that Elliott Sadler wrecked his car enough not to continue after causing a third straight caution. That was getting old.

--Brian Vickers can miss the race this week and be locked into the top 35. Not too shabby.

--OMG! Hendrick didn't win again!

--This open wheel thing isn't working out too well as of now. Why do we insist that these drivers jump straight to Cup? What good is marketing if they're never on television during the race and (maybe, in a few weeks) missing the race entirely?

--Michael Waltrip Racing still needs to get their act together. None of the teams are very comfortably in the top 35; but they've at least made the show every week.

--I was wrong about Scott Riggs. Jeremy Mayfield still hasn't done much, but Riggs looks like he won't be falling outside the top 35 any time soon.

--The tires stunk. Tony Stewart said it better (and vilier) than I ever could.

Your Complete (and late) Atlanta Preview

Goodyear went nuts with the tires. Why? What's the problem with a soft tire? Instead, they're running on rubber rocks. The field has already spread out 26 laps in, and I don't think that we're going to see much side-by-side racing today, which is a shame, because Atlanta is a racy track with multiple grooves.

The Hendrick cars will be good, and Edwards, Biffle and Kenseth will be at the front near the end. Hell, the Gibbs cars should be good too.

Winner: Jimmie Johnson

(0-3 on the year, with drivers picked averaging a 6th place finish)

Your Complete Atlanta Qualifying Preview

Sorry for the lack of posts. I'll make that up shortly.

The cars that need to get in on time haven't gone yet, so I'm still OK.

Who's on the bubble:

Reutimann
Lamar
Busch
Carpentier
Elliott
Benson
Andretti
Jarrett
Schrader
Waltrip
Nemechek
Vickers
Skinner

Busch (1) is in and will sneak in by speed, leaving the door open for Elliott (2) because Jarrett (3) gets in on speed as well. Skinner (4) gets the #84 in for the first time and Vickers (5) qualifies too. Waltrip (6) and Reutimann (7) get in and Carpentier (8) gets the last spot.

OUT: Nemechek, Schrader, Andretti, Lamar, Benson.

(6-8 last week as well.)

Penalty Day

We'll find out today how much Carl Edwards will be docked after he failed post race inspection after Vegas, and we'll also hopefully know the result of Robby Gordon's appeal.

All signs point to Edwards losing 25 points and Bob Osborne for six weeks, and I think that we will also see Gordon's penalty reduced to that as well (from 100 points)

Edwards will lose the points lead--he'll trail Kyle Busch by four--and Gordon will go from being on the top 35 bubble to being solidly in. A great victory for his team.

Of course, this is NASCAR, so this could all change, but that's what it looks like things are shaping up to be.

Random Las Vegas Observations

--Wasn't I just using that picture last week?

--Carl Edwards now has to be considered the favorite at Atlanta as well. Another 1.5 mile track, he's won there previously, and duh, he's rolling right now. I am afraid that he may not be able to keep it up for the whole season, but it would be fun as hell if he could have Jeff and Jimmie chasing him come October.

--The news that Red Bull is debating pulling AJ Allmendinger from the 84 shouldn't be any surprise. Allmendinger should have been started on an ABC schedule of some sort to ease the transition to stock cars, but was instead thrust into a fulltime Sprint Cup ride because Red Bull wanted to have two teams. He can turn it around, especially with Jay Frye overseeing the whole operation, but he's got to figure out how to qualify for the race first. At this point, taking him out of his ride is nothing different than leaving him in because he's not making the races anyway.

--If Darrell Waltrip hadn't kept mentioning Mike Skinner and Bad Boy Mowers, I would have had no idea that Bad Boy was sponsoring him this week. Of course, our Fox affiliate doesn't have an over the air HD feed, but I couldn't tell who was sponsoring that car. Word to Bill Davis: get some bolder decals.

--Elliott Sadler is 12th in points? Really?

--I'm going to have to disagree with David Poole, who is not happy that NASCAR is pushing a new statistic called Driver Rating instead of putting the money won in the agate box scores. At least driver rating--however the heck it's figured out--gives us a better idea of how a driver did. Tony Stewart made more money for finishing last than David Ragan made for finishing 6th. I know that Stewart's prominence and success and sponsor money has a lot to do with it, but can we at least agree that the money outside of what the winner receives is largely irrelevant?

Your Complete UAW-Dodge 400 Preview

Before I talk about the race, I would like to point out that I really don't like the late race starts. Sure, I realize that Las Vegas is in the Pacific Time Zone, but is it really necessary to start the race at 1:30 local time? Can't we start the race at noon their time, which is only 3pm on the east coast? I think making east coast fans wait until 4:30 to watch the race is ridiculous. (Yes, I realize that there are 10 night races a year. I like night racing. However, I don't like the tweener racing like is what is going on today. Either start the race in the early afternoon, or start it in the evening for most of the country. Especially when the race is going to be strictly a daylight race, like this one will be.)

And I have yet to understand why qualifying was held in the late afternoon in Vegas when the track was slowly becoming more and more shade covered. If the race is going to be run in the middle of the day, why do we have to qualify in changing conditions? I get night and twilight qualifying sessions for races that are being run at that time. But why did we have to give the go or go home cars the advantage of a cooler track Friday?

Anyway, let's talk about the actual race. It's hard to ignore Jimmie Johnson as he goes for four in a row, and yes, it's hard not to notice that he qualified 33rd. But you're out of your mind if you think he's going to finish anywhere near there. (Unless he gets caught up in a wreck while he is back in the pack. That's possible)

The Hendrick and Roush cars are going to be factors here. Obviously they are going to be factors anywhere, but I really think that today is going to be the first Toyota points victory. And it's going to be the hometown boy who is starting on the pole.

Winner: Kyle Busch.


(for the record, I didn't post a prediction because of the rain, but last week I picked Kyle too. So I'm 0-2 on the year. And yes, I realize I have picked Gibbs cars all three times)